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复盘李彦宏航母计划:百度为何难摆脱对搜索广

我们可能相对保守了一些。总觉得搜索足够重要,只要把搜索做好,就是一个功德无量的事情,但其实我们可以做得更多。”
\"We may be relatively conservative. Always feel search is important enough, as long as do the search, is a major thing, but we can do more.\" 
 
在最近接受《财经》杂志的采访中,百度公司创始人、CEO李彦宏面对百度为何从一家受人尊敬的公司走到被大众指责的地步这个问题,给出了上面的回答。而刚刚过去的半年,百度连续经历了病种吧被卖以及魏则西之死两大风波,外界口碑跌至冰点,监管层的整改措施也让百度业绩承压。
In recently told caijing magazine interview, baidu's founder and CEO robin li in the face of baidu why walk from a respected company to be widely blamed the point of this question, the answer above is given. And over the past half year, baidu has experienced consecutive diseases it sold and wei is the death of the west two big wave, the word of mouth has dropped to freezing point, regulatory measures also let baidu performance under pressure. 
 
 
不够创新,太过保守,这是李彦宏给百度诊断出的病因。
Not enough innovation, is too conservative, this is Mr. Li give baidu diagnosed the cause. 
 
 
极度成功的搜索业务成为百度更上一层楼的最大阻碍,但如果回溯百度过去两年做的尝试,便不难发现百度并非没有“做得更多”。
Extremely successful search business to become the biggest obstacle of baidu to the next level, but if the back of baidu, in the past two years to do try, it's not hard to find baidu is not \"do more\". 
 
 
如果以李彦宏给出的诊断结果为标准来评价百度近两年来的所有动作,航母计划可以称作百度最触及筋骨的一次改革。
If to li diagnostic results are given as the standard to evaluate all the action in the past two years, baidu carrier plan could be called baidu reform of one of the most touching the physique. 
 
 
去年7月30日,在百度第二季度财报分析师会上,百度宣布将对百度外卖和91桌面等项目进行独立发展和开放融资,首次提出航母计划:除百度外卖和91桌面以外,百度还有其他十多个项目准备进一步对外部投资者开放,为他们提供直接投资百度优质资产的机会。
Last year on July 30, second-quarter earnings analyst meeting in baidu, baidu announced on baidu take-out and 91, an independent development and open desktop items such as financing, carrier plan is put forward for the first time: besides baidu take-out and 91 desktop, baidu and other more than ten projects to further open to outside investors, provide them with direct investment opportunity to baidu high-quality assets. 
 
 
彼时,主导该计划的百度高级战略顾问何海文指出,“航母计划”对百度加速生态构建、释放优质业务潜力和激发员工创业激情三方面具有重大积极意义。
Senior strategist, leading the plan of baidu He Haiwen pointed out that \"carrier plan\" on baidu accelerate ecological building and release of high quality business potential and stimulate entrepreneurial passion three aspects has positive significance. 
 
 
从后续一系列迅速的剥离动作来看,百度航母计划的想法应该由来已久,这个计划也寄予了“百度加速生态构建”的想法。
From a rapid series of follow-up action, baidu should carrier plan idea has a long history, the plan also had the idea of \"baidu accelerate ecological building\". 
 
 
在李彦宏眼中,不保守、做更多是重振百度的关键因素,以此逻辑推导,从架构、人员、资本层面对百度进行大刀阔斧改革的航母计划看上去是为百度治病的良方。
In li's eyes, not conservative, doing more is the key to revive the baidu, this logic deduction, from the aspects of structure, personnel, capital carrier for baidu sweeping reform plan looks for baidu. 
 
 
那么实施近一年以后,百度航母计划究竟效果如何?百度又是否真的通过航母计划释放了优质业务的潜力、提升了百度整体竞争力的目的呢?
The implementation after nearly a year, baidu carrier plan effect how? Baidu and really by the carrier plans to release the business potential of quality, improve the overall competitiveness in baidu? 
 
 
哪些项目可上舰?
What items can be ship? 
 
 
第一个登上百度航母的业务是百度外卖。
The first carrier on baidu's business is baidu take-out. 
 
 
在去年7月底宣布推出百度航母计划的同时,百度方面也同时宣布了拆分百度外卖的决定。通过百度航母计划分拆之后,百度外卖获得由水木投资集团和汉能基金联合领投的2.5亿美元融资。
In the end of July last year announced plans to launch baidu carrier at the same time, baidu baidu has also announced a split delivery decision. Through baidu carrier plans to spin off that after baidu take-out for jointly by shuimu investment group and its fund brought $250 million in financing. 
 
 
随后,91桌面、作业帮、百度音乐、百度视频、百度文学等业务陆续通过航母计划从百度主体剥离开来。
Subsequently, 91 desktop, homework help, baidu baidu music, baidu video, literature and so on arriving by carrier plan from baidu subject separating them. 
 
 
根据百度方面的介绍,百度航母计划主要为“对投资者开放百度优质资产”,但从航母计划的实际操作思路来看,“开放优质资产”的愿景与实际存在偏差。
Introduced according to the baidu, baidu carrier plan mainly for \"high-quality assets for investors to open baidu\", but from the perspective of the practical idea of carrier plan, vision of the \"open high-quality assets\" and the actual bias. 
 
 
百度外卖一度寄托了百度CEO李彦宏关于百度突围移动互联网的梦想,在去年的百度世界大会上,李彦宏演讲的大部分篇幅都在提O2O业务,甚至表态百度的首要任务是发展O2O业务,“将来百度O2O业务营收将超越搜索营收”。
Take-away once for baidu baidu CEO robin li of baidu to break the dream of the mobile Internet, at last year's baidu world conference, robin li, the bulk of the speech are mention O2O business, even said baidu's first priority is to develop O2O business, \"baidu O2O business revenue in the future will go beyond search revenue\". 
 
 
前有200亿重金砸入,后有李彦宏表态撑场,在这一思路指导下,由百度外卖和百度糯米合并而成的百度外卖,获得了百度内外的优质资源支持,也因此,在分拆之后顺利拿到融资。
Before kick in $20 billion, followed by li said hanging, in under the guidance of this thinking, by baidu take-out and glutinous rice merger of baidu baidu take-away, obtain the support baidu inside and outside the high quality resources, therefore, after the break-up smoothly to get financing. 
 
 
但不是所有百度航母计划的项目都能得到这种优待。与之相比,同样“上舰”的音乐、文学等业务与其说是在开放优质资源,不如说在甩卖。
But not all baidu carrier plan of the project to get this preferential treatment. Compared with the same \"ship\" music, literature, etc. Business is not so much in the open quality resources, as in the sale. 
 
 
2015年12月3日,百度宣布旗下百度音乐业务将与太合音乐集团合并,合并后,百度音乐的品牌和服务将保持不变。尽管双方并未透露交易的具体金额以及合并后各自所占的比例,但据知情人士透露,所谓剥离、合作、成立新公司都是障眼法,百度音乐卖身太合音乐,后者继续使用“百度音乐”的名头进行自己的运营才是真实情况。
Announced on December 3, 2015, baidu baidu's music will sit well with music group, after the merger, baidu music brand and services will remain the same. Although the two sides did not reveal details of the amount of trading and the proportion of their respective after merger, but, according to people familiar with the so-called stripping, cooperation, set up the new company is a smoke screen, baidu music prostitution sit well with music, who continue to use \"baidu music\" brand for its own operation is the real situation. 
 
 
与百度音乐有类似遭遇的还有百度文学——作价10亿人民币卖给完美世界,此后百度占有两成股份,而未来百度文学或者面临更名,去百度化。对此百度尚未给出回复,但完美世界内部人士已向腾讯科技证实这一传闻。
And music have similar experiences and baidu baidu literature -- for 1 billion yuan to sell to a perfect world, since baidu has a twenty percent stake, literature or face changed, and the future baidu to baidu. Baidu has yet to give reply to this, but a perfect world insiders have tencent technology to confirm this rumor. 
 
 
与2013年1.915亿从完美世界买下纵横中文网的价格相比,此次百度10亿卖出百度文学的价格已经上涨5倍,但考虑到百度文学打包了熊猫看书以及其他百度系资源,百度文学的价格实际并没有增长太多。在当前IP概念大热的背景下,百度10亿出售文学业务,抛售之心堪称急切。
In 2013 and 191.5 million from a perfect world with vertical and horizontal, compared to the price of Chinese 1 billion sell the baidu baidu literature has rise in the price of 5 times, but considering the baidu literary reading to pack the panda and other system resources, baidu baidu and increase the price of the actual literature. In the current IP concept under the background of big heat, baidu 1 billion business selling literature, the heart of the sell-off is urgent. 
 
 
可以看出,与百度外卖不同,百度音乐和百度文学反映出百度实施航母计划的另一目的:剥离不良资产。
As you can see that, unlike baidu take-away, music and literature reflects the baidu baidu baidu carrier plan another purpose: stripping non-performing assets. 
 
 
音乐和文学并非百度核心业务,而且在近年的发展中,这两项业务已经掉队。百度音乐由于深陷盗版模式积重难返,因此在版权监管趋严后萌生退意;百度文学则在内容储备、作者队伍、发行渠道上被阅文集团狠狠压制。两项不能产生可观营收反而已经成为包袱的业务,对当下的百度而言并没有价值。因此剥离成为百度的最优选择。
Music and literature is not baidu's core business, and developing in recent years, which have been left behind. Baidu music because in tackling piracy mode, thus become unelected after copyright tighter regulation; Baidu literature is on reserve, the author team, distribution channels are read article group severely suppressed. Two cannot produce substantial revenue has become a burden instead of business, for the present baidu did not value. Therefore dissection for baidu's optimal choice. 
 
 
百度为何端出航母
Baidu why set out the carrier 
 
 
尽管在推出之初,百度方面宣称航母计划的意义在于加速生态构建、释放优质业务潜力和激发员工创业,但从航母计划的实际操作思路来看,为潜力业务寻求外部资金支持,同时借机剥离不良资产的目的更加真实。
Although at the beginning of the launch, baidu said the meaning of the carrier plan is to accelerate the ecological building and release of high quality business potential and stimulate entrepreneurship, but from the perspective of the practical idea of carrier plan, seek external funding support for the potential business, at the same time to the purpose of removing bad assets more real. 
 
 
百度为什么这么急切瘦身?迟到赶场移动互联网是主要原因。
Baidu why so eager to thin body? Visit numerous mobile Internet is the main reason for being late. 
 
 
2013年,百度重金18.5亿美元收购91无线,彼时距iPhone 4诞生过去三年多时间,同时,上线两年有余的微信已经斩获了三亿用户,阿里巴巴刚斥资5.86亿美金买下了新浪微博18%的股份,只有百度在移动互联网仍无所获。
Heavily in 2013, baidu's $1.85 billion takeover of 91 wireless, well after the birth of the iPhone 4 in the past more than three years, at the same time, online for more than two years of WeChat has won the three hundred million users, alibaba has just spent $586 million, bought a 18% stake in sina weibo, only baidu in mobile Internet still does not have attains. 
 
 
百度虽然依旧PC端搜索的老大,但在来势汹汹的移动互联网面前,却没有一个拿得出手的入口。因此,18.5亿收购91无线,被认为是百度在用钱买一张移动互联网的门票。
Although still PC search leader baidu, but in front of the mobile Internet menacing, but I did not take a shot of the entrance. 1.85 billion to buy 91 wireless, therefore, is considered to be baidu in use the money to buy a ticket of the mobile Internet. 
 
 
根本目的只有一个:不掉队。
Only one primary purpose: not left behind. 
 
 
2014年,李彦宏在参加世界互联网大会时曾公开表态,“当2012年底到2013年初的时候,我们突然意识到智能手机在中国迅速地普及、给用户带来了越来越多的方便,也突然意识到发力已经晚了,也没有想到PC产品转移到移动上有太多的坑。”
In 2014, Mr Li has publicly when attend world conference on the Internet, \"when the end of 2012 to early 2013, we suddenly realize that smartphones rapidly popularized in China, brought more and more convenient to users, and all of a sudden consciousness and arrival force are too late, also didn't think there are too many pit on the PC products transferred to the mobile.\" 
 
 
收购91无线是百度补课移动互联网的开始,此后,在2013年到2014年,百度接连入股了糯米、Uber,以及成立百度外卖、推出直达号等。
Buy 91 wireless is baidu make up a missed lesson the beginning of the mobile Internet, then, in 2013 to 2014, baidu have a stake in the glutinous rice, Uber, and founded baidu take-away, introduced direct number, etc. 
 
 
紧急加码移动互联网后,更大的考验摆在百度面前:资金与专业度。
After emergency overweight mobile Internet, a bigger test before baidu: capital and professional degrees. 
 
 
首先,能为百度提供收入来源的依然只有搜索广告。
First of all, offer the source of income for baidu still only search advertising. 
 
 
尽管搜索广告收入仍旧为百度贡献了客观收入,但这一商业模式已经遭遇风险。近两年来,在BAT三家中,百度的市值逐渐落后,与腾讯和阿里巴巴形成了较大差距。
Objective (while still contributing to baidu search advertising revenue, but the business model has a risk. In the past two years, three home at BAT, baidu's market value fall behind, with tencent and alibaba has formed a larger gap. 
 
 
进入移动互联网后,百度掌握的PC端流量入口地位被削弱,依托PC端搜索广告获得的营收被其他入口分流,触摸到了增长的天花板。而受贴吧被卖风波以及魏则西事件影响,百度的搜索广告业务已经出现下滑的可能。
After entering the mobile Internet, baidu master PC flow inlet position weakened, relying on the PC search advertising revenue received by other entrance, touch the ceiling. While the post bar sold the wave and wei west events, baidu's search advertising business has declined. 
 
 
6月14日,百度宣布调整第二季度营收预期。据百度财务公告显示,百度2016年第二季度预期营收总额将会介于181亿元(约合28.07亿美元)到182亿元(约合28.23亿美元)之间,与此前预期的人民币201.1亿元(约合31.19亿美元)到人民币205.8亿元(约合31.92亿美元)相比,下降约10%。
On June 14, baidu announced the adjustment in the second quarter revenue expectations. , according to financial announcement baidu baidu in the second quarter of 2016 the total expected revenue will be between 18.1 billion yuan ($2.807 billion) to 18.2 billion yuan ($2.823 billion), and had expected 20.11 billion yuan ($3.119 billion) to 20.58 billion yuan ($3.192 billion), compared to drop nearly 10%. 
 
 
其次,主营业务承压的同时,百度新兴业务仍需大量资金投入。
Second, the main business under pressure at the same time, baidu still needs a lot of money into new business. 
 
 
仅在O2O业务上,李彦宏就曾在去年宣布百度将在3年内对糯米业务追加投资200亿元人民币。今年3月底,百度公司高级副总裁、自动驾驶事业部总经理王劲也对媒体表示,百度将在人工智能研发方面投入数百亿,发展无人车等项目。
Only on the O2O business, li has worked in baidu announced last year will be within three years of glutinous rice additional investment of 20 billion yuan. At the end of march this year, baidu inc., senior vice President, automatic driving Wang Jin division general manager also told reporters, baidu will spent tens of billions on research and development of artificial intelligence, unmanned vehicles and so on. 
 
 
4月12日,有外媒消息称,百度正在寻求一项10亿美元的贷款协议,期限为5年。
On April 12, foreign media reported that, baidu is seeking a $1 billion loan agreement, the deadline for five years. 
 
 
需要定期向华尔街交成绩单的百度双面承压,其一方面急需找到新的业务增长点,另一方面也需要减轻不良资产对财报的拖累。仅仅通过发展移动搜索已经远远不够,百度航母计划于是成为百度决策层解决矛盾的方法。
Need to Wall Street pay transcripts baidu double-sided pressure on a regular basis, one side need to find new business growth point, on the other hand also need to reduce bad assets drag on earnings. Only through the development of mobile search has not enough carrier plan will become baidu baidu executives solution to the conflict. 
 
 
航母计划是治疗百度的良方吗
Carrier plan is for the treatment of baidu 
 
 
百度仍是一家非常赚钱的公司,但它身处BAT中国互联网第一梯队的光环正在逐渐褪去。
Baidu is still a very profitable company, but it is in BAT Chinese Internet the first echelon's aura is gradually faded. 
 
 
搜索之外少有建树的消极影响已经通过数字反映出来。财报显示,2016年第一季度百度营收158.21亿元,仅为腾讯的一半,而在2016年第一季度,大学生魏则西之死风波持续发酵,对百度医疗广告影响极大。可预计的是,百度营收可能会受到很大影响,与腾讯、阿里巴巴的营收差距将进一步拉大。
Search outside had little negative influence has reflected by digital. Results show that the first quarter of 2016 revenue of 15.821 billion yuan, baidu is only half of tencent, and in the first quarter of 2016, the college student wei west the death of the storm continued fermentation, a strong impact on baidu medical advertising. Can be expected is that baidu's revenues may be affected by a lot, and tencent, alibaba's revenue will further widening gap. 
 
 
搜索引擎业务收入已经触及天花板,百度要想追上腾讯和阿里,通过航母计划发展新兴业务是最现实的做法。
Search engine business income has touched the ceiling, if you want to catch up with tencent and baidu ali, emerging business development is the most realistic plan by carrier. 
 
 
剥离缺乏前景和竞争力的业务,开放有潜力的业务寻求外部融资,百度的航母计划与腾讯的开放战略非常相似,但这艘航母能带来百度想要的未来吗?
Stripping lack of prospects and the competitiveness of business, open a potential business for external finance, baidu's aircraft carrier program and tencent's opening-up strategy are very similar, but the carrier can bring baidu want in the future? 
 
 
如果逐一审视登入航母计划的业务,答案可能并不乐观。
If one by one, look at the log in carrier's business plan, the answer may not be optimistic. 
 
 
目前来看,百度外卖、爱奇艺是百度系资产中最有潜力的业务,但整体来看,百度要想通过这些业务追赶,难度很大。
Now, baidu take-away, iQIYI is one of the most potential business in baidu is assets, but on the whole, baidu to through the business after, very difficult. 
 
 
这几项业务中,只有爱奇艺处于行业第一梯队,百度音乐、文学等基本已被百度放弃。
This several business, only the first echelon iQIYI in an industry, basic has been baidu baidu music, literature, etc to give up. 
 
 
这其中,百度外卖曾被李彦宏寄托了极大期望,被认为是百度真正连接了人和服务的一项业务,但是在激烈的市场竞争下,位居行业第二的百度外卖并没有反超的迹象,同时阿里携旗下口碑网卷土重来,O2O的战火没有平息,百度外卖仍是需要巨大投入的无底洞。
It, baidu take-away was li for great expectations, is considered to be baidu real connection and the services of a business, but under the fierce market competition, came second in the industry of baidu take-away and show no signs of slip, ali back e1000 &e2000 word-of-mouth network at the same time, the O2O war is settled, baidu take-away is still need huge investment bottomless. 
 
 
从目前给出的这一手牌来看,百度航母计划局势不佳。
Given this hand till now, baidu carrier plan a poor situation. 
 
 
不过业务上的暂时落后可能并非航母计划的最大挑战,百度决策层在目标和战略上的摇摆才是影响其取得理想效果的真正原因。
But the business temporarily behind the biggest challenge may not be the carrier plan, baidu executives on the goals and strategies of swing is the real reason of affecting its obtain ideal effect. 
 
 
在近期接受采访时,李彦宏提到了他对O2O业务的态度,对于O2O业务的成绩“不能说完全满意”,“如果真的做不过,就不做,该做的决断也要做。”
In a recent interview, Mr. Li mentioned, his attitude of O2O business with O2O business performance \"cannot say fully satisfied\", \"if you really do, however, is not to be, to do's determination also to do.\" 
 
 
而就在一年之前,李彦宏曾表态百度的首要任务是发展O2O业务,“将来百度O2O业务营收将超越搜索营收”。与之相对的是,在李彦宏最新的表态中,金融业务、人工智能被寄予了更多期望,同时李彦宏还认为VR、直播是笼络用户的好方法。
And almost a year ago, li said baidu's first priority is to develop O2O business, \"baidu O2O business revenue in the future will surpass search revenue\". In contrast, in the latest comments robin li, financial business, artificial intelligence is expected more, li also think VR, live is a good way to users. 
 
 
李彦宏对O2O业务已经发生明显转变,金融业务则被寄予了很大希望,但与腾讯和阿里巴巴相比,甚至与许多体量更低一级的公司相比,百度发力金融已经晚了几年。
Li has obvious change of O2O business, financial business has been placed great hope, but compared with tencent and alibaba, even with a lot of volume compared to a lower level of the company, baidu with financial has been late for a few years. 
 
 
从重金收购91无线最后通过航母计划分拆卖出,到砸入200亿发展O2O,再到现在押注金融和人工智能,与国内互联网主流公司相比,百度的战略变化算得上迅速,但这或许也让百度失去了某些机会。
From $91 last through wireless carrier break-up plan points out, to hit in 20 billion the development of O2O, now bets on financial and artificial intelligence, compared with the mainstream domestic Internet company, baidu's strategic change is rapid, but it may also make baidu lost some opportunities. 
 
 
在回答百度与谷歌最大的区别是什么这个问题时,李彦宏回答:我们起步晚,能够挣到的钱没有谷歌那么多,更关键的是,我们是实用主义者,而不是理想主义者。
What is the biggest difference between baidu and Google in answer this question, li replied: we started late, to be able to earn money without Google so much, more to the point, we are pragmatists, rather than an idealist. 
 
 
以百度外卖检验效果的航母计划,可能在实用主义的指导下,已经丧失了带给百度更多机会的可能,而更多新业务的上线,让频繁更换目标的百度,短期内仍旧看不到摆脱依赖搜索的曙光。
Effect of baidu delivery inspection to carrier plan, may be under the guidance of pragmatism, has lost to baidu more opportunity, and many more new business online, make frequent replacement target baidu, in the short term is still can't see off the dawn of the search. 
 

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